Is Cease Worth the Haul?

Should the Mets Go "All-In" on the Padres Ace?

While everyone waits for the exhausting Pete Alonso free agency to end, the backdrop to the Alonso news has been the Mets interest in San Diego’s potential rotation sell-off.

Dylan Cease and Michael King are entering free agency after the season and have been bandied about as readily available. Over the last twenty-four hours, potential prospects that may interest A.J. Preller have included Brandon Sproat, Jonah Tong, Jett Williams, and Luisangel Acuna.

The Mets rotation lacks certainty, and no current hurler can be considered an “ace.” Does Cease fit that bill, and should David Stearns cash in valuable prospect chips even before spring training starts?

Learning from History

Historically, when the Mets win a pennant, it’s due to their rotation. You all know about the ‘69 group, led by a Hall-of-Famer in Tom Seaver and a number two who is an All-Star and borderline Hall-of-Famer in Jerry Koosman. The ‘86 club had Doc Gooden and All-Stars Ron Darling, Sid Fernandez, and Bob Ojeda to lock down the opposition. Four aces was the narrative when Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz surprised the baseball world and brought home a pennant in 2015.

The real comparison to where the current group stands is the 1999-2000 club. The Mets won 97 games in 1999 with a rotation led by Al Leiter—who had an inconsistent season—and a bunch of number threes in Rick Reed, Masato Yoshii, Bobby Jones, and a late-career Orel Hershier.

When the competition’s rotation is anchored with three Hall-of-Famers (Atlanta) and the crosstown Yankees have Roger Clemens, David Cone, and Andy Pettitte, it was clear what the Mets lacked to get to the next level: an ace.

Steve Phillips acquired Houston ace Mike Hampton—coming off a 22-win season—for promising righty Octavio Dotel and Roger Cedeno, a young speedster who profiled power and speed in the outfield at the time. Looking back, this wasn’t an expensive haul, but it did eat away at that team’s depth and lineup construction.

Hampton would win 15 games for the Mets that season, shut down the Cardinals in the NLCS with 16 scoreless innings, and win LCS MVP. Since he was in the last year of his contract, Hampton entered free agency after the season and took his talents to Colorado. The Mets don’t win a pennant without Hampton, so Phillips' risk was well worth it.

Sean Manaea profiles very similarly to how Leiter did with the 1999 club. Can David Stearns bring in his Mike Hampton? Is Dylan Cease that guy? Perhaps another San Diego hurler is a better fit. The real question is do you tear up the farm system for this type of deal?

How Good is Dylan Cease?