Talkin’ Mets Contributor David Mills has a lot to say in his latest edition of “Short-Stops.” Read his thoughts on the Mets Wild Card chances, potential September call-ups, and looking back at some great starting pitchers in team history.
LEADING OFF
The big question for Mets fans remains… Can the Amazins’ make a move into a Wild Card spot? This will likely take something close to a 25-12 finish (90-72 final tally). This means they will have to win series on a consistent basis. It also means they will need help from the Braves, who are not playing well due to a myriad of injuries and underperformance. It won’t be a cakewalk. Both the Padres and D-Backs have been playing excellent baseball following the all-star break. The Friars are 21-6, and the Snakes are 21-8. The Padres added pitching depth at the deadline by acquiring Martin Perez, Jason Adam, and Tanner Scott. Joe Musgrove recently returned from the IL. The D-Backs picked up switch-hitting first-sacker Josh Bell and relievers Dylan Floro and A.J. Puk. Merrill Kelly came off the IL on 8/11. It’s unlikely the Mets can catch both hot teams against whom they play seven games between now and Aug. 29. Winning five of the seven is imperative and could move the Mets into the second Wild Card position. Right now, the D-Backs appear to be vulnerable after being swept by the Rays. However, the best-case scenario continues to be overtaking the Braves, which is certainly possible if they cooperate. The Mets have three games remaining in Atlanta during the last week of the season. The Mets have the eighth toughest schedule, according to Tankathon, from this point forward.
TWO AND ONLY
Under current CBA rules, September rosters can be expanded by only two players. One pitcher and one position player, or two position players. That’s it. The goal is to prevent incessant pitching changes that lengthen games. It would be a bit shocking to see the Mets forgo an arm. So, the leading candidates for the position spot appear to be Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuna, Austin Allen, and Luke Ritter. Baty is by far the leading candidate due to his left-handed bat and MLB experience. If Stearns is looking for speed on the base paths, Acuna is the man, but his value defensively is mitigated by the presence of Jose “OMG” Iglesias. Both Baty and Acuna are currently on the 40-man roster, which gives them a substantive edge. The two non-40-man options are Allen (a left-handed hitting catcher who might offer Mendoza some line-up flexibility) and Ritter (a legitimate power threat who has put up some very good numbers at Syracuse). Another overriding and unspoken reason for Baty is the need to build his value, and a strong finish can turn the prior interest of two or three teams at the July deadline into a couple of handfuls over the winter.
The arm add will also likely be selected from a foursome comprised of Alex Young, Sean-Reid-Foley, Tylor Megill, or Eric Orze, who is certainly the longshot of the group. Of course, the overall health of the entire staff will play a role in this selection, but right now, Young (the southpaw) and Reid-Foley are the frontrunners. Reid-Foley’s health and options are certainly part of that equation and could be the tiebreaker. Another longshot could be Brandon Sproat if he performs well at Syracuse.
THE THREE HOLE
Just an observation… Why not hit Alonso in the three-hole with Nimmo and Martinez to follow? This would afford some lineup protection to Pete and Brandon and drop JD into a slot where his lack of speed is a little less obvious. How ‘bout this line-up: Lindor, Vientos, Alonso, Nimmo, Martinez, Marte, McNeil, Alvarez, Bader.
THE CLEAN-UP SPOT
Batting Nimmo batting clean-up makes some sense. Last season, Pete Alonso led off an inning about 25% of the time.
FIVE REASONS THE METS DID NOT RETAIN THE TOP WILD CARD SPOT (in no particular order)
- Way too many walks issued by Mets pitchers
- Bullpen injuries to Drew Smith, Reed Garrett, Dedniel Nunez, and Sean Reid-Foley.
- The loss of slug from Francisco Alvarez who, despite last night’s game-winner, really needs to stand closer to the dish.
- Slumps from J.D. Martinez (also too far from the plate) & Nimmo at the wrong time.
- The D-Backs and Padres getting hot at the right time (for them).
ARMS
With all the debate and potential new rules regarding starting pitching, let’s take a look at three of the greatest arms that have ever graced a diamond. All three came up with the Mets between 1966 and 1968 when the apt descriptor for the pitching style of all three was “Drop and Drive.” They all shared the same minor league system and instructors; They all shared the same Mets pitching coach—Rube Walker, And all three did a lot of running and had big butts and enormous thighs.
TOM SEAVER played 20 MLB seasons. He started 647 games and completed 231. He threw 61 shutouts. From his rookie year in 1967 through 1979 (13 seasons), he started 32-37 games annually. In the 1980s, from his age 35-41 seasons, he started 26, 23, 21, 34, 34, 35 & 28 games, respectively. He never had an arm issue until his final campaign that kept him out of the 1986 World Series for the BoSox.
NOLAN RYAN played in a whopping 27 MLB seasons. He started 773 games and completed 222. He also threw 61 shutouts. From his first season with the Angels in 1972 through 1992 (21 seasons), he averaged 33 starts, including three seasons with 39 starts and one with 41. In his 21 seasons as a full-time starter, Ryan averaged 222 innings and exceeded 299 or greater three times. He never had a serious arm issue or missed starts until his final age-46 season in 1993.
JERRY KOOSMAN played 19 MLB seasons. He started 527 games and completed 140. He threw 33 shutouts. During his 11-year Mets career from 1968 through 1978 and the first two years with the Twins (1979-80), he averaged 32 starts. After five campaigns where he started and relieved, in his age-41 season with the Phillies in 1984, he made 34 starts. During the 14 years he was almost exclusively a starter, Koos averaged about 233 innings per year. He never had a serious arm issue during his career.
So, what was the secret of their longevity and lack of arm issues? It had to be a combination of their physical make-up (big butts and thighs, although all three were listed at around 6’1”), lots of running, and something in the Mets system (instructors/coaches). They did not utilize weighted balls or have any of the scientific and technical benefits of today’s hurlers. Of course, they were talented and understood how to pitch. But with all the arm injuries these days, one wonders what made these guys so impervious. Perhaps MLB should do a deep dive.
THE BEST QUESTIONS LOOKING FOR ANSWERS DURING FINAL 38 GAMES
How will the bullpen shake out?
Can Marte get his mojo back?
Will the Mets go to a six-man rotation in September?
Where’s the running game?
THE PETE WATCH
While most Mets fans are desirous of keeping Pete a Met, there is little doubt that there is a reasonably good chance he will be heading elsewhere. Why? Well… he moved his representation to Scott Boras, who leads the industry in two areas:
(1) Getting big bucks for his clients
(2) Keeping everyone waiting until spring training or beyond.
It’s doubtful that David Stearns will overpay or be willing to wait past the Winter Meetings. No one needs to remind real fans of the game played caused Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, and JD Martinez to receive far less than expected in overall dollars and length of contract. Three even signed too late to start the regular season with the big club.
It would be shocking to see the David Steans-led Mets deliver an Alonso deal that bests Freddie Freeman’s with the Dodgers. Frankly, there is no comparison between the two players other than Pete is younger. But the more pressing problem for Pete and Boras is the emergence of Mark Vientos and other corner infield options represented by Ronny Mauricio, Baty, and Ritter—a switch-hitter, lefty and righty, respectively. All four can potentially play either corner. This frees up resources to go after Corbin Burnes (another Boras client) and Juan Soto (the big kahuna).
So, look for Stearns to make a respectable offer to Pete (a little north of the Nimmo deal) at the close of the season. He’ll also offer the Qualifying Offer to protect the draft choice and then give Boras a deadline of Dec. 7 (the day before the Winter Meetings) to agree to a deal. Any other scenario is hard to imagine. But if you need an interesting analysis of Pete’s value, have a look at this comparison with Lucas Duda in roughly the same number of games over two seasons.